A customer browses products on shopee.vn. Việt Nam’s e-commerce market is forecast to climb 20 per cent in the last quarter of this year to reach US$12 billion by year end. — VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s e-commerce market is forecast to climb 20 per cent in the last quarter of this year to reach US$12 billion by year end if the COVID-19 pandemic is brought under control.

This is the forecast by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) in a recent report on Việt Nam’s e-commerce market against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the early stages of the pandemic (from February to April), 57 per cent of surveyed e-commerce-related businesses reported their revenue growth was below 30 per cent compared to the same period of 2019 with some even seeing negative growth, the report said.

However, 24 per cent of businesses saw revenue increasing more than 51 per cent.

E-commerce revenue in the first six months declined 6 per cent year-on-year despite the number of transactions increasing by 25 per cent. Most transactions at that time were of low value.

Under circumstances when the disease is kept at bay, the ministry forecasts e-commerce revenue to rise 20 per cent in the last three months to reach $12 billion.

If the pandemic worsens, impacting production and consumption, supply and operations of transport and catering services, growth could reach only 13 per cent with estimated market value of $11 billion.

Việt Nam is one of the most dynamic e-commerce markets in the world with an average growth rate of more than 30 per cent per year in the last five years.

In May, the Government approved the national e-commerce development master plan for 2021-25, targeting annual industry growth of 25 per cent with more than half of the population shopping online and average spending of about $600 per person per year by 2025.

The market size is expected to reach $35 billion by 2025, ranking third in Southeast Asia.

Business-to-consumer (B2C) sales will rise 25 per cent per year, accounting for 10 per cent of total retail sales of goods and services. Cashless payments in e-commerce would make up 50 per cent and about 70 per cent of transactions on e-commerce platforms would have electronic invoices.

At the same time, the gap in e-commerce development between Hà Nội and HCM City and other localities is also expected to narrow.

To achieve this goal, the MoIT is building mechanisms and policies to promote digital transformation and enhance the capacity to manage and organise e-commerce activities and boost consumer confidence.

In the first nine months of this year, the authority handled more than 2,200 cases of e-commerce violations and other acts of taking advantage of e-commerce to trade in smuggled goods, goods of unknown origin, goods infringing intellectual property rights and counterfeit goods with fines worth more than VNĐ16 billion ($690,000).

A number of cases attracted attention including fake products sold by Ansan Cosmetics chains and through the Kagawa.vn platform, as well as food safety scandal of Minhchay.com.

In addition, since the beginning of the year, the ministry has asked e-commerce platforms to review and remove nearly 223,600 shops and more than one million products, handling more than 30,000 violating shops with nearly 48,000 products. — VNS